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The Taste of Wine – Does It Matter? A Global Economist’s Perspective

tom merle — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 17:14:00 GMT

I've added this study to reinforce the message of this blog. That blind tasting among consumers is the best test for the "quality" i.e., the pleasure of a wine TOM

The Taste of Wine – Does It Matter? A Global Economist’s Perspective (Part 2)

by Elliott R. Morss, Ph.D. – www.morssglobalfinance.com

Introduction

In Part 1 of this 2-part series, I focused on wines being sold in the US with no mention of quality. Here, the focus will be on quality – more specifically, what do we know about what wines people like and why? And what role do prices, ratings, marketing and tastings play in consumers’ choices? There has been considerable research on this question, with much of it reported on in the Journal of Wine Economics. In the following paragraphs, I will summarize the findings and trace out their implications for wine buyers and sellers.

Price – Taste Relationships

Goldstein et al analyzed data from 6,000 blind tastings – a lot of blind tastings! I quote from their findings:

Individuals who are unaware of the price do not derive more enjoyment from more expensive wine. …we find that the correlation between price and overall rating is small and negative, suggesting that individuals on average enjoy more expensive wines slightly less….

Lecocq and Visser analyzed data from three data sets totaling 1387 observations on French Bordeaux’s and Burgundies. They report similar findings:

When non-experts blind-taste cheap and expensive wines they typically tend to prefer the cheaper ones.

They cite the following anecdote:

Ernest Gallo, the patriarch of the family-owned E&J Gallo Winery in California (the largest winemaker in the world), recalls how, in the early stages of his career, he once sold wine in New York. He offered a buyer two glasses of the same red wine, the buyer drank the two glasses and asked for the prices of the “two” wines. Upon hearing that the first wine cost 5 cents per bottle, and the second 10 cents, the buyer declared he wanted the 10 cents bottle. The message behind this anecdote is confirmed by many wine auctioneers who have noticed that in the auction room higher wine prices act as a stimulant rather than as a deterrent, thereby reflecting that for bidders, part of the pleasure is apparently to know that a wine is famous and very expensive.

Goldstein et al report a similar finding from earlier research that both trained and untrained tasters favored wine they knew in advance was higher priced.

Overall, Lecocq and Visser conclude taste has very little to do with wine prices:

Our results indicate that characteristics that are directly revealed to the consumer upon

inspection of the bottle and its label (ranking, vintage and appellation) explain the major part of price differences. Sensory variables do not appear to play an important role.

Ratings and the Raters

Goldstein et al raise questions about whether wine drinkers should put much stock in ratings and raters:

Our results indicate another reason for why the average wine drinker may not benefit from expert wine ratings: he or she simply doesn’t like the same types of wines as experts. This is consistent with Weil (2001, 2005), who finds that even among the subset of tasters who can distinguish between good and bad vintages, or reserve or regular bottlings, they are as likely to prefer the “better” one as the “worse” one.

The Raters: Who To Believe?

Dom Cicchetti analyzed how three “experts” rated Bordeaux wines in 2004. The experts were Robert Parker (RP), Wine Spectator (WS), and Jancis Robinson (JR). Using “agreement” statistics Cicchetti developed with other academics, he concluded that RP and WS were in fair to average agreement on their ratings, while RP and JS got a very poor agreement rating. I quote from the study. Aside from the overall agreement ratings, here are a couple of examples on specific wines: RP rated 2 wines above average that JR rated as unacceptable and RP rated 19 wines excellent that JR rated as only average.

Richard Quandt had an interesting observation on raters and disagreements by comparing them to the Liquid Assets Wine Group:

…the Liquid Assets Wine Group: a stable group of eight persons who have been doing regular, blind wine tastings for about ten years. They are all experienced wine drinkers and yet in many cases (not in the majority of cases but in a sizeable minority) the disagreements are substantial. The relatively ideal conditions of this group do not hold for wine writers who, with rare exceptions, do not taste the wines that they write about blind, nor do they taste the same set of wines together on the same occasion, and hence their views are, at best, compromised.

Findings

So what does this research tell us so far?

Price is not a good proxy for wine drinkers’ tastes. If anything, it appears that most wine drinkers prefer less expensive wines.

Experts frequently disagree on their ratings. One expert rates a wine above average while another finds it unacceptable.

How a wine tastes has little to do with how a wine is priced. The primary determinants of price appear to be ratings and what is written on the front label.

Should we believe these findings? The sample sizes and research methodologies appear to be acceptable, but there is an important problem: the make-up of the sample. Most of the data were drawn from high-end Californian and French Burgundy and Bordeaux wines. Virtually no research has been done to date on what I will call the “new” New World wines (NNWW), defined as the New World excluding the US: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, China, New Zealand, and South Africa (what ever happened to Eastern European wines? They entered the US market before NNWW).

The sampling problem in the research findings is of fundamental importance. For most people, the challenge is not to be able todistinguish between a 2005 A. Rousseau Gevrey Chambertin Clos St. Jacques and the lesser 2005 Alain Hudelot Noellat Nuits Saint Georges. Rather, the question is which among the excellent and less expensive wines arriving from the new wine countries tastes better. Note that “being able to distinguish between” is a form of expertise. It is different than asking “what tastes better”.

The transition from European and US wines to NNWW wines is underway. Gokcekus and Fargnoli examined the Wine Spectator’s annual Top 100 lists, published since 1988. During that period, the average real price of the Top 100 decreased from $43 to $26, with quality unchanged at about 93 points. The number of countries included in increased from 6 to 12 countries. Their quantitative analysis found that when a NNWW replaced a European or US wine, the average real price of the Top 100 list falls by 2.5%.

I concluded Part 1 of this series with the following quote:

10 years ago, it was difficult to find a reasonably good wine for $10. This is not true anymore. Good $10 wines are available for every varietal.

In the following paragraphs, I explore the implications of this observation for wine consumers, restaurants, and liquor stores.

Consumers – Finding Out What You Like

Let me start by saying the evidence presented above suggests many consumers like brand names, expensive wines, wines with 90+ ratings, etc., and they subjugate taste to these factors. OK. Who is to challenge a consumer’s criteria for selecting a wine?

But for taste, I suggest the following process.

1. First, choose one of the following four wine characteristics and varietal:

Light White (Sauvignon Blanc);

Heavy White (Chardonnay);

Light Red (Pinot Noir);

Heavy Red (Cabernet Sauvignon).

2. Subscribe to some wine rating service (just to give you a frame of reference).

3. Take your varietal choice to a large liquor store where prices seem reasonable (avoid small stores – there are real economies of scale in selling wine). Tell the sales person you want to try a few from your varietal choice costing no more than $14. The next time back try another sales person. In a reasonably short period, you will find someone who has a pretty good sense of what you like. You are on your way!

A Concrete Example – My Own Journey

Many years back, my favorite wines were White Burgundies and then Italian Barolos. But for 15 years, I have focused on heavy reds. Most French and American Cabernets were too expensive for me, so I bought French Rhone blends that to this day remain quite inexpensive. I had an inherent distrust of liquor store salesmen, so I purchased a subscription to the Wine Spectator (WS) online ratings. For three years, I did not enter a liquor store without a spreadsheet from WS for the varietal I was shopping for. In my WS database search I filtered on price ($25 or less) and quality (an 88 or higher rating).

The Australians were making their marketing push for Shirazes, another heavy red, at very low prices. I could get the Rosemont Shiraz for only $8 and a Rosemont Cabernet/Shiraz blend for the same price. Then WS rated Yellowtail “The Reserve” Shiraz at 90. I could get it for $10. So I did a blind tasting with friends. The Rosemont Blend won, followed by the Yellowtail. Great: two good heavy reds for $10 or less. I then said am I missing something by not drinking more expensive Shirazes? WS rated the Schild Shiraz at 96, a very high rating. Amazingly, I could get it for $25 a bottle! Another blind tasting with friends. Nobody singled out the Schild as exceptional against my $10 Shiraz selections.

I did the same thing with Malbecs. I started with the Rutini Trumpeter rated 89 by WS available for less than $8. For comparison, I chose a Cantena Zapata available at $25 and an Achával-Ferrer Finca Altamira at $112. In blind tastings, the Cantena was better than the Trumpeter, but the Altamira tasted no better than the Cantena.

Note my descriptive terms for wine: “won, “was better than”. I have problems with the professional tasters’ descriptive terms. For more on this, see Quandt’s excellent “On Wine Bullshit” article referenced above.

But for your taste determination, note my method, not my selections:

choose a varietal;

use a rater to keep you from wasting money on very bad wines;

start with low-priced wines and work up; and

always do blind tastings (not hard – just don’t look while someone positions the wines in front of you).

I repeat: in buying wines, you might not care about taste. I know someone who likes the proprietor of a wine shop, and he is happy with anything the proprietor recommends. A friend of mine wants to be known as someone with expensive wine “tastes”. He never buys a wine that costs less than $25. Ok, fine with me! I drink his wines whenever he asks me over without complaining.

But if you care about taste, I urge you to use the method outlined above.

Implications for Wine Sellers (Restaurants and Liquor Stores)

You have a tough task. You have to please all your clients, so you have to have expensive and inexpensive wines, wines with recognizable names and labels, and wines from all over.

I will only offer this:

The era of European/US dominance in wines is over. Prices are coming down as the new countries perfect their wines. You can be out in front on this by featuring lower-priced new New World wines;

Consumers are becoming more knowledgeable, and as they do, the demand for less expensive wines from the NNWW countries will grow.

Bibliography

Cicchetti, Dom, “Documented Disagreement Among Wine Experts: A Rational Response for Consumers”, prepared for the 2010 Annual Meeting of the American Association of Wine Economists.

Gokcekus, Omer and Andrew Fargnoli, “Is Globalization Good for Wine Drinkers in the United States?” Journal of Wine Economics (JWE),v. 2, no. 2

Goldstein, Robin, Almenberg, Johan, Dreber, Anna, Emerson, John W., Herschkowitsch, Alexis, and Jacob Katz, “Do More Expensive Wines Taste Better? Evidence from a Large Sample of Blind Tastings”, JWE, v. 3, no. 1.

Lecocq, Sébastien and Michael Visser, “What Determines Wine Prices: Objective vs. Sensory Characteristics”, JWE, v. 1, no. 1.

Quandt, Richard E., “On Wine Bullshit: Some New Software?”, JWE, v. 2, no. 2.

The Case for a Summer Picnic

tom merle — Sun, 30 May 2010 21:43:14 GMT

We picked wines at random that had the potential of going along for the ride in our picnic basket. We ran the gamut of styles and varieties.

The weather is perfect and the location is set: the perfect tree sitting in a nice meadow—perhaps on top of a hill—with lush green grass underneath. Not too hot and not too cold—in a word, perfect. This is a picnic spot of champions. Of course, we can’t all have the wonderful hidden away spot, but we still want to have picnics! Perhaps it’s at your local park, lake, front lawn or even backyard. Picnics are all about the food,company, and of course, the perfect wine to pair with all of that.

Think about all the famous picnic foods and you’ll quickly realize that: 1) most of the foods are cold and 2) most of thefood is on the lighter side. Remember all of your favorite picnic foods? Potato salad, cold fried chicken, cheeses and crackers, some lunch meats and fresh bread, ripe fruit in season, etc. Lots of variety. So what are the best picnic wines? Well, you think cool, crisp, and white/rosé .

Picnic fare is all about the variety, ease, and “travelbility”. The food has to survive the time it takes to get to the picnic area, These tend to be foods that are lighter: the cold fried chicken, veggie trays, lunch meats, and fruit. Crisp, delicious white wines are a must in these situations! You can buy those freezer sleeves that can slide over bottles to keep them cool so you don’t have to worry about carrying too much ice with you. Crisp wines are a good choice. Sauvignon Blanc, Chenin Blanc, Pinot Grigio, and Pinot Blanc are among favorite varietals. They are bright, acidic, and loaded with crisp citrus fruit and minerality. Lighter white wines like this make the food come to life while refreshing your palate.

The wines were sampled at Little Joe's restaurant. Various antipasti plus chicken strips were served. We would have had a picnic for proper context were it not for a tour before of the Old Mint across the street. Here are the results.

5  (95+) LOVE IT!~EXTRAORDINARY - An exceptional, ravishing winethat sets the standard against which other wines are judged

4.5  (92-94) DELECTABLE~SUPERB

4  (90-92)  DELICIOUS~EXCELLENT - A delicious wine that balances lush fruit flavors with refinement

3.5 (87-89) REALLY LIKE IT~VERY GOOD

3  (85-87) LIKE IT~GOOD - A pleasing wine with varietal distinctiveness

2.5  (82-84) OK~SATISFACTORY

2  (80-82) NEUTRAL~FAIR - A simple quaffer for everyday drinking

1.5  (77-79) DISAGREEABLE ~ MEDIOCRE

1  (75-77) DISLIKE IT~ DEFICIENT - An inferior, innocuous wine which borders on flawed

Group Really like it

Average Very good or above 1st,2nd,3rd Total

Toolbox 2008 Pinot Grigio Clarksburg $14

2.95 85 9/20 1,0,3 6

Crisp and lemony, longer finish, lovely aromas of pears and citrus, refreshing, minerally, an excellent picnic or evening on the porch wine, distinctively PG with more body with a less coastal influence

Lionheart 2007 Roussane McGinley Vineyard Santa Barbara $32

2.72 83 4/20 1,0 5

pear and peach, citrus, pineapple, floral, creamy and full bodied due to malo, some spice, not enough fruit

Triennes 2007 Rosé Provence $15

2.72 83 4/20 0,1,1 3

pleasant, strawberry and watermellon aromas, simple, stick with "Lucy" from Pisoni Vineyards

Navarro 2006 Muscat Blanc Anderson Valley $19

3.20 86 10/20 3,4,2 19 2nd place

floral, honeysuckle, lemon blossom, dry and refreshing, complex and exotic, distinctive, nice switch from the usual suspects

Stein Family Vineyards 2009 Gewurtztraminer Los Carneros $22

3.45 87 12/20 5,4,2 25 1st place

lychee fruit, grapefruit, zesty, fragrant, fleshy, loaded with flavors, slightly off dry which suits this wine, well balanced, delightful

Mer Soleil Silver 2007 Unoaked Chardonnay Santa Lucia Highlands (Monterey) $25

3.34 86 11/19 4,2,1 17 3rd place

plenty of fruit, creaminess, vibrant, melon, higher in alcohol, bright and clean, bold yet balanced

Apaltagua 2008 Chardonnay Reserva Estate (unoaked) Casablanca Valley Chile $11

3.43 87 14/20 1,4,1 12 Best Buy

Fresh peach, very approachable, rich and crisp at the same time, more body than previous Chardonnay

Pirie South 2006 Estelle blend Tasmania Australia $12

2.71 83 7/20 0,0,1 1

a bit of spritz, Gewurz like spice, lime, yeast, Riesling comes through, would pair well with Thai food, some muskiness

Michel Schlumberger 2007 Pinot Blanc Dry Creek Valley $22

3.15 86 7/20 0,0,5 5

green apple, some spice, juicy pear and quince, more acidity than aroma, pleasant, simple

Foxen 2006 Chenin Blanc Ernesta Wickenden's Vineyard Santa Maria Valley $18

3.40 87 9/20 2,0,1 7

tropical fruit, crisp and clean, melon, classic, pair with seafood, honeysuckle

Eitelsbacher Karthauserhofberg 2002 Spatlese Riesling Mosel Ruhr Valley $25

3.47 87 12/18 0,3,4 10

great expression of Riesling, long finish, yellow apples, some lavender, racy, lovely nose,

Hagafen Cellars 2009 Riesling Lake County $18

3.29 86 9/18 2,0,2 8

vibrant, lower acid, steely, lively, lacks the weight of the previous wine

Pinots on Parade: the Best of the Best

tom merle — Sun, 18 Apr 2010 00:53:00 GMT

Each year Affairs of the Vine, founded by the inestimable Barbara Drady, conducts the Pinot Noir Shootout and Summit. She starts with 270 wines from throughout the state as well as the Northwest. For 2010, a group of 40 expert judges working in panels selected 44 wines that according to their refined palates scored 90 or above. These 44 wines were then reviewed by a group of wine enthusiasts participating in a "People's Choice Shootout" last month.

For the past two years, we've tasted a dozen "vin du vin" that were among the 44. The 12 limited production wines for this year were among the highest scoring wines, most coming in first, second or third according to the four different categories (Male/Female ~ expert/enthusiast). The notes of the professionals by gender are reproduced below.

Our members were not quite so generous with their scores with one notable exception--the Sonoma Coast Pinot which wowed our group. Rarely do we have a consensus that results in what amounts to a score of 93 points.

5 (95+) LOVE IT!~EXTRAORDINARY - An exceptional, ravishing winethat sets the standard against which other wines are judged

4.5 (92-94) DELECTABLE~SUPERB

4 (90-92) DELICIOUS~EXCELLENT - A delicious wine that balances lush fruit flavors with refinement

3.5 (87-89) REALLY LIKE IT~VERY GOOD

3 (85-87) LIKE IT~GOOD - A pleasing wine with varietal distinctiveness

2.5 (82-84) OK~SATISFACTORY

2 (80-82) NEUTRAL~FAIR - A simple quaffer for everyday drinking

1.5 (77-79) DISAGREEABLE ~ MEDIOCRE

1 (75-77) DISLIKE IT~ DEFICIENT - An inferior, innocuous wine which borders on flawed

Group Really like it

Average Very Good 1st,2nd,3rd Total (3 pts. for 1st, 2 pts. for 2nd, 1 pt. for 3rd)

Sonoma Coast 2007 Freestone Hills Sonoma Coast, $40.00

4.31 93 pts 12/13 2,4,2 16

Male judges: Cinnamon, blackberry jam and cola aromas. In the mouth, this is a great example of well made New World Pinot - black cherry flavors, ripe but with good balance and nice acidity. Well done!

Female judges: Blueberry pie and vanilla aromas open to ripe cherry, raspberry and plum flavors accented with nutmeg and white pepper. This wine is balanced with well integrated oak and zippy acidity.

Lucienne 2007 Doctor's Vineyard Santa Lucia Highlands, $38.00

3.82 89 10/15 3,2,2 15

Male: Aromas of dark fruit, cotton candy, oak, vanilla, and smoke. Delicious fruit flavors highlighted by deft oak integration. Great structure, well balanced. Nice finish.

Female: The nose is layered with cassis, Bing cherry, black pepper, cedar, and soy. The palate has a great texture - smooth and round, replicating the fruit that the nose portends. Lovely spice joins the fruit mid through the long finish.

Pacific Coast 2007 Babcock Vineyards Santa Rita Hills, $62.50

3.85 89 9/12 3,1,0 11

Male: A rich, fat and opulent opening of cherries and pomegranate accented with smoky notes. Lush and fleshy dark fruit middle with allspice, cherry and vanilla in small doses. Good acidity on the lengthy, distinctive finish.

Female: The nose is concentrated - rich cherry, raspberry accented by earthy loam. Fruit forward cherry and raspberry flavors are delivered on the palate with lots of vanilla on the finish.

Dierberg 2006 Estate Santa Maria Valley, $42.00

3.65 88 10/14 2,3,1 13

Male: Smoked cherries, cherry jam, truffle, and forest floor aromas. Nice balance of fruit and earthy flavors. Velvety on the palate.

Female: Mushrooms, truffle and dried cherry aromas delivering the same on entry. Bright cherry kicks in mid-palate with soy notes adding to the complexity. Satiny mouthfeel. Well structured with satisfying fruit and spice.

Kendric 2007 Marin County, $35.00

3.61 88 9/14 3,1,0 11

Male: Tart cherries on the nose. The palate is predominantly cherry and wild berry to mid-palate where tart cranberry and citrus join through the finish.

Female: Strawberry aromas and flavors enhanced by black and green tea notes. Nice citrus notes on the cleansing finish. Starting to develop some velvet and elegance.

TR Elliott 2007 Three Plumes Russian River Valley, $40.00

3.75 88 8/12 0,1,1 3

Male: Candied cherry, forest notes, honey, and oak aromas replicate beautifully on the palate. The entry of honeyed fruit is nicely balanced. Dried herbs, forest floor and sweet oak on the finish.

Female: Plum, raspberry, baking spice and hints of cedar jump from the glass. Juicy and full on the palate with tangerine, floral notes and black raspberry on the end. It's very fruity on entry and moves into a great wine as the complexity is unveiled. Nice earthy tones on the finish.

Russian Hill 2007 Estate Vineyards Russian River Valley, $36.00

3.73 88 8/12 3,1,0 6

Male: "Heavenly." The nose is super rich with ripe, spicy cherry. The palate is terrific...complex with black cherry framed by subtle oak. Red currant is prominent on the elegant finish.

Female: Lovely complex fusion of fruit, spice and delicate oak on the nose. The palate displays fresh tart cherry, red plum, slight black pepper, and vanilla. There is an appealing creaminess to the palate and then tart acid on the long finish.

Balleto 2007 Winery Block Russian River Valley, $34.00

3.44 87 8/14 1,2,1 8

Male: "Super! Love this style! Food will make this even better." Rhubarb, cola, red berries throughout. Well balanced.

Female: Elegant and subtle. The nose is enticing - a virtual floral bouquet of violets and roses. The palate is lovely and delicate but deep with cherry flavors accented by cedar, earth and anise. The finish is smooth.

Vine Hill 2007 Santa Cruz Mountains, $30.00

3.42 87 8/13 0,1,0 2

Male: Spicy cranberry, maraschino cherries, cinnamon and vanilla aromas, Lovely, vibrant, intense, and persistent. Perfect balance of fruit to oak. Silky texture.

Female: A fascinating wine - rich & complex. Dark cherry, cola and vanilla aromas open to a big ripe palate with cherry, cooked red plum, soy, and nutmeg flavors, The finish is long and smooth.

Shandel's Oppenlander 2007 Estate Grown Mendocino County $40.00

3.40 87 7/14 2,0,2 8

Male: Coffee, red and black cherry with a dusty edge in the glass. Rich berry and herb entry. Lush berry, tar, cola, tea, and herbs mid-palate with mushroom, deep darker berries and some tannin on the finish.

Female: A complex but subtle wine. Cherries, raspberries and minerals combine to make this a literally "mouthwatering" nose. The palate confirms the aromas. Medium plus acid with tannins to balance. Pair with rare duck breast for a perfect meal.

Claiborne & Churchill 2007 Edna Valley, $25.00

3.33 87 9/15 1,1,1 6

Male: Deep purple in color with a pink rim and medium opaque center. Candied cherry, cocoa powder, tart cherry, soft herbs, soy, and dusty notes on the nose prepare you for the nice flavors on entry - red and black cherry enhanced by sour plum. The mid-palate is sweet and lush. The oak integration is deft adding to the complexity of this wine.

Female: In the glass the color is a vibrant purple-red with pronounced ripe cherry, blueberry and sour cherry aromas. The palate is lush with generous flavors of cherry, plum and a dash of anise spice. Nicely balanced with good acidity.

Ventana 2007 Estate Grown and Bottled Ventana Vineyard Arroyo Seco, $28.00

3.20 86 8/13 0,0,2 2

Male: In the glass - earth and cherries. In the mouth - fruity (mostly black cherry) with some acid and lots of new wood. Should integrate with time.

Female: Classic Pinot Noir. Aromas of cherry cola with brown spices - cloves and nutmeg. Raspberry and cranberry flavors highlighted by the spice with a hit of bracing acidity.